In 2023, Central Europe’s[1] commercial real estate market faced a notable decline in investment volumes. Dropping by 55% year on year, the region’s total investment volume accounted for EUR 5.02 billion. Of the six countries surveyed, Poland experienced the most significant downturn of 68%, with its share on the total CEE volume also dropping. The highest proportion of the capital went into the office sector, which also recorded the sharpest outward movement in terms of yields. Local and regional investors accounted for two thirds of the investment transaction volumes, a significant increase from the previous years. Despite challenges, the market demonstrates resilience, particularly in the logistics and residential sectors, spotlighting areas of growth potential.
Graph 1: CEE countries’ share on the region’s investment volume
Graph 2: Individual sectors’ share on the region’s investment volume
Prime yields: Resilience amidst economic shifts?
Overall, the Central European commercial real estate market witnessed a pronounced dip in investment volumes, led by Poland which registered the steepest fall, indicative of investors’ heightened caution amidst economic uncertainties. This decline is however contrasted by the nuanced behaviour of prime yields across the region, which showed resilience amidst economic shifts.”
Jeff Alson, Head of Capital Markets CEE, Cushman & Wakefield
In general, there is little visibility on real prices. Evidently, prices have not bounced back enough to satisfy sellers, and buyers have not adjusted to the new pricing. Hence the low investment activity.”
Jeff Alson, Head of Capital Markets CEE, Cushman & Wakefield
Office, retail and industrial share was almost equal
Prior to 2023, the office and industrial sectors were dominating the investments. However, in 2023, the investment volumes saw an almost equal share among the three main sectors: office, retail, and industrial.”
Jeff Alson, Head of Capital Markets CEE, Cushman & Wakefield: “
Graph 3: Investment into sectors (% share of total)
The rise of local investment
This transition reflects a broader trend of regional investors playing a more pivotal role in sustaining market liquidity and driving investments. The changing landscape underscores the need for a strategic approach to capital sourcing, emphasizing the growing importance of local and regional investors in navigating the current economic environment and leveraging their market familiarity to identify viable investment opportunities.”
Jeff Alson, Head of Capital Markets CEE, Cushman & Wakefield
Anticipating recovery and strategic growth
Despite a traditionally stable investment environment in the CEE region, there is currently a gap of three to five billion euros in the gross investment volume compared to the historical averages. This deficit is projected to be offset by a steady return of international capital and a consistent increase in local investment, supplemented by a healthy but more selective debt market. Over the coming years, this is expected to recover and eventually increase long-term averages.”
Jeff Alson, Head of Capital Markets CEE, Cushman & Wakefield
[1: The CEE region includes Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia for the purpose of this comparison.]
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