Global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market. The opening of 2024 is encouraging and new retail space supply in the coming months is likely to match or even surpass last year’s total. The Polish market continues to attract interest from new brands, borne out by several debuts. More arrivals are expected to follow amid improving retail sales, rising shopping centre footfall and turnover levels as inflation is weakening.
SUPPLY: A good first quarter
Poland’s combined retail stock stands at approximately 16.3 million sq m. The outlook for 2024 remains positive as the development pipeline suggests that new supply is likely to match or surpass 2023’s total. Shopping centres account for 18% of the stock underway, while retail parks with a 76% share in the pipeline continue to dominate the Polish development market,”
comments Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research, Cushman & Wakefield.
DEMAND: Five new brands enter Poland
RETAIL SALES: A rebound after a very weak 2023
Analysis of retail sales for February 2024 has revealed that only two out of the eight retail categories listed experienced falls year-on-year. Textiles, clothing and footwear - products that are particularly important to shopping centres - saw retail sales fall by 21.5% year-on-year, while figures for furniture, radio, tv and household appliances showed a slump in sales of 5.2%. By contrast, the strongest growth was recoded for motor vehicles, motorbikes and spare parts (+26.6%) and other (+23.0%). In February 2024, Poland’s online penetration rate stood at 8.6% and remained largely unchanged year-on-year. The best online performers were multimedia, fashion, furniture, radio, tv and household appliances,”
comments Ewelina Staruch, Market Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.
FOOTFALL AND TURNOVER: Statistics show that shopping centres remain popular retail destinations attracting big spenders
The average footfall for shopping centres and retail parks in Q1 2024 was approximately 420,000 customers per retail scheme, a significant improvement over previous years. The footfall index was up by 17.1% year-on-year and by 5.5% when compared with 2022. The strongest month was March 2024 with approximately 455,000 visitors on average,”
adds Ewelina Staruch.
Net nominal turnover averaged PLN 972 per square metre in January 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, before falling slightly to PLN 849 per square metre in February. Importantly, with inflation slowing, real turnover was no longer in negative territory of several per cent. In addition, consumer sentiment remained resilient compared to previous months, boding well for the whole retail market,”
explains Ewelina Staruch.
RENTS: Retail parks are seeing the strongest rental growth
Retail parks reported the strongest rise of 13.5%. Meanwhile, prime shopping centre and high street rents increased by approximately 11% year-on-year. The relatively strong rental growth at the beginning of 2024 was driven by annual rent indexation translating into higher rates in new leases,”
comments Paulina Bauer, Head of Retail Asset Services, Cushman & Wakefield.
About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2023, the firm reported revenue of $9.5 billion across its core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, and valuation and other services. It also receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture and commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), sustainability and more. For additional information, visit http://www.cushmanwakefield.com.
[1: Supply statistics comprise schemes of over 5,000 sq m of GLA and include new buildings, extensions and redevelopments.]