According to the latest report from global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield, occupier demand was notably weaker on the Polish industrial market in the first quarter of 2024. However, despite a double-digit decline in take-up, Poland was one of the most active leasing markets in Europe. Development activity also stabilised, but this year’s new supply is forecast to be the fourth highest in the history of the Polish industrial market.
DEMAND: POLAND AS ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE LEASING MARKETS IN EUROPE DESPITE A 25% DECLINE IN TAKE-UP
The first quarter of 2024 saw more than 870,000 sq m of industrial space transacted – this represented a year-on-year decrease of 25% and the lowest figure since the second quarter of 2019. However, Europe as a whole also experienced a double-digit drop in take-up of 22% year-on-year, so Poland remains one of the top-performing European markets for leasing activity despite a marked slowdown from previous years,
explains Damian Kołata, Partner, Head of Industrial & Logistics Agency Poland, Head of E-Commerce CEE, Cushman & Wakefield.
Logistics companies were notably less acquisitive, accounting for 20% of take-up in the last six months compared to the usual average of 30-40%. This sector is, however, showing signs of heightened activity, but this will not translate into take-up figures until several months later,
adds Damian Kołata.
SUPPLY: THE DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH OF THE LAST NEARLY 10 YEARS HAS COME TO AN END
New warehouse supply in the January-March period amounted to more than 850,000 sq m, 86% of which was delivered onto four markets: Lower Silesia, Pomerania, Greater Poland and Mazovia, which accounted for 32%, 20%, 19% and 15% of the total respectively,
comments Adrian Semaan, Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.
Development activity slackened slightly over the quarter, with approximately 2.32 million sq m under construction. Despite this, 2024 is expected to see 2.9 million sq m come on stream - this would represent the fourth highest supply level in the history of the Polish industrial market,
adds Adrian Semaan.
It is worth noting that smaller markets such as Bydgoszcz-Toruń, Szczecin and Rzeszów are also expected to see an uptick in development. By contrast, there are no projects under way in Lubuskie due to a relatively high availability of warehouse space and muted demand from tenants with links to the German economy. Construction volumes are expected to shrink in the near term in Lower Silesia and Łódzkie,
says Damian Kołata.
RENTS: RENTAL RATES STABILISE AMID HIGH SUPPLY LEVELS
Net absorption in the first quarter of the year amounted to nearly 520,000 sq m, signifying an increase in physically occupied space almost on a par with the 2017-2020 average of 530,000 sq m but well below the average of more than 850,000 sq m seen in 2021-2023,
comments Adrian Semaan.