Global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield has summarized the first half of 2024 on the Polish office market. Office demand shows signs of stabilization amid muted development activity which is likely to continue until the end of 2026.
SUPPLY: Developers remain cautious about launching new projects
Total new office supply hit approximately 125,000 sq m, most of which was delivered in Warsaw, Wrocław and Krakow. The pace of office deliveries slowed significantly in the last three years. Although a handful of office projects broke ground in this period, development activity remains subdued. For example, there is approximately 215,000 sq m of new office space under construction in Warsaw - almost the same as in regional cities. The office development pipeline in the largest regional cities stands at approximately 210,000 sq m compared to the pre-pandemic 850,000 sq m,”
comments Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research, Cushman & Wakefield.
We estimate that approximately 225,000 sq m, including office completions in the year to date, will be added to the Polish office market this year. Development activity is expected to pick up slightly in 2025, which is likely to see another 240,000 sq m come on stream. Higher supply levels are unlikely until after 2026,”
says Vitalii Arkhypenko, Market Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.
TAKE-UP: Leasing activity is set to stabilize
Office take-up remained largely unchanged year-on-year, which is attributed to gradual stabilization on the office rental market and a trend towards optimizing office footprints. Leasing activity in regional cities amounted to 286,000 sq m in the first six months of 2024, down by 14% year-on-year. Regional take-up predominantly came from the IT, service and manufacturing sectors,”
says Jan Szulborski, Business Development & Insight Manager, Cushman & Wakefield.
VACANCY RATES SHOW MINOR MOVEMENTS AS RENTS REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
Elevated office construction, fit-out and project financing costs continue to significantly impact rental rates in projects underway. Rents in existing office buildings largely depend on the attractiveness of a building to prospective tenants, its solutions supporting ESG goals and individual market dynamics,”
concludes Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz.
[1] Warsaw, Krakow, Wrocław, Tricity, Katowice, Poznań, Łódź, Lublin, and Szczecin