One in seven square metres of retail space to be built in Poland

The three months to September 2024 marked the first-ever quarter in the history of the Polish market that was fully dominated by retail parks. 2025 is shaping up to be a similar year in this respect, as retail parks account for 70% of the total development pipeline. Shopping centre density rates in Polish cities are so high that few new shopping centres are being planned,” 

comments Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research, Cushman & Wakefield.

Despite this, Poland came second in Europe in 2024 for new retail supply in shopping centres and retail parks. According to data from Cushman & Wakefield, one in seven square metres of retail space delivered in Europe was built in Poland. In 2025, Poland’s share of total new retail supply is expected to remain at around 15%, with France leading the way at 24%,” 

adds Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz.

Retail space density in Poland currently stands at 345 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants, well above the average of 325 sqm for Europe and 251 sqm for CEE, and is expected to grow steadily to reach approximately 420 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants by the end of 2026. What does this mean in practice? In the long term, tenants are likely to intensify their search for alternative locations, particularly in prime high streets. This trend is exemplified by recent leases signed in Warsaw by brands such as Empik, Bulgari, Luca, Carhartt, and Le Szapo,” 

comments Michał Masztakowski, Head of Retail Poland, Cushman & Wakefield.

Prime retail properties, including shopping centres, retail parks and prestigious high street units, are likely to command higher rents under new leases, exceeding indexation. This will be driven by the limited availability of retail space and the continued growth in retailer turnover in top locations,” 

explains Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz.

The growth of individual items in service charge budgets and service charge rates for new leases is expected to be driven by factors such as a minimum wage increase, local hikes in waste management, water and sewage fees - which could rise by up to 15-20% in cities where these fees have remained unchanged in recent years - and local property tax increases. In addition, building material prices began to trend upwards in late 2024 and are expected to continue rising into 2025,” 

adds Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz.

There are some green shoots on the lifting of the freeze on CAPEX allocations in shopping centre budgets. While 2025 may still be more about planning than delivering major refurbishment projects, there is a growing need for more investment in improving the quality of space in shopping centres and for more ambitious planning of renovations and redevelopments,” 

explains Ewelina Staruch, Market Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.

Many owners now need to decide how to upgrade their properties to better address consumer needs. Traditional retailing offers a key advantage: the shopping experiences that customers are seeking. This means that retail properties should feature attractive amenities such as relaxation areas, playgrounds, a diverse F&B offering and coworking spaces that will encourage professionals to visit during work hours. Another important aspect of potential transformation is adapting the tenant mix to suit the potential of a location. As a result, some shopping centres will require reconfiguration, while others may only need upgrades to refresh and renovate common areas,” 

adds Michał Masztakowski.

Demand reported by tenants from these sectors matters because they require large spaces, typically in excess of 500 sqm. They also look for diverse locations, both in shopping centres and on the ground floors of office and residential buildings. Demand is also expected to be driven by tourism. Poland is the sixth most popular destination in Europe for international tourists. The growth in international arrivals is broadly expected to drive retail growth in our country,” 

adds Ewelina Staruch.

Fashion retailers, for example, are increasingly expressing concerns that their stores are too small and will require larger spaces in their current locations rather than more stores. Retail developers and designers may find it noteworthy that there is currently an oversupply of small units under 200 sqm, while there is still a notable shortage of attractive larger retail units. As a result, some tenants are likely to increasingly target prime high street locations in Poland’s major cities. However, this trend can be further reinforced by systemic changes that will standardise and accelerate the leasing process in high streets, making it better aligned with business realities and shopping centre practices,” 

concludes Michał Masztakowski.