Global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the performance of Poland’s retail market in the first quarter of 2025. While new retail supply slowed temporarily in the three months to March, the development pipeline hit its highest in six years. Five new brands entered the Polish market, opening their first brick-and-mortar stores in the country. Additionally, although shopping centres experienced a decline in footfall, they recorded a slight increase in turnover.
SUPPLY: New retail supply hits 47,000 sqm in Q1 [1]
47,000 sqm of new retail space came on stream in the first quarter of 2025, with no retail closures reported. This brought Poland’s total retail stock to nearly 16.9 million sqm. It is worth noting, however, that the first quarter typically sees lower levels of new retail supply compared with the rest of the year. This is largely due to heightened retail activity toward the end of the year, when footfall and turnover peak, encouraging developers and owners to open new facilities. Notably, new retail supply in the final quarter of last year reached its highest level in nearly a decade,”
explains Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research Poland, Cushman & Wakefield.
By the end of the first quarter of 2025, Poland’s retail development pipeline hit its highest level since 2019, signifying that this year’s new supply will remain relatively high. However, with increasing retail market density, development activity is expected to slow in the coming years,”
adds Ewa Derlatka Chilewicz.
DEMAND: Five new brands enter Poland’s retail market in Q1
RETAIL SALES: Strong in January, down in February, consumer confidence remains in negative territory
Retail sales in January 2025 grew by a staggering 4.8% year-on-year in constant prices, representing the strongest growth since May 2024. However, this rebound was followed by a correction in February, with retail sales falling by 0.5% year-on-year. One factor weighing on February’s retail sales was an unfavourable calendar effect: the extra day in the leap year 2024 raised the comparison base. In the first quarter of 2025, the current consumer confidence index hovered around -15, marking a slight decrease year-on-year. This negative value indicates that pessimistic consumers outnumbered those with an optimistic outlook on personal finances and spending,”
comments Ewelina Staruch, Senior Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.
FOOTFALL AND TURNOVER: Footfall declines amid rising nominal turnover
While shopping centres experienced slightly lower average customer traffic, they saw a rise in consumer spending. In the first quarter of 2025, net turnover surpassed PLN 900 per sqm. After accounting for inflation, nominal turnover rose by 3% in January and 2% in February. Cushman & Wakefield’s survey has found that consumers prefer shopping centres for services and clothing purchases, with retail parks favoured for large grocery shopping and buying pharmaceuticals and cosmetics,”
adds Ewelina Staruch.
RENTS: Annual inflation-linked indexation
EUR-denominated leases are typically indexed using Eurostat’s HICP, which in 2024 averaged 2.4% for the eurozone and 2.6% for the EU. By contrast, leases denominated in Polish zloty are indexed to the inflation rate published by Statistics Poland (GUS) – it averaged 3.6% in 2024. Some leases, however, include provisions for minimum or maximum indexation values, such as a minimum threshold of 2% and a cap of 5%,”
concludes Paulina Bauer, Head of Retail Asset Services Poland, Cushman & Wakefield.
[1] The supply statistics cover schemes of over 5,000 sqm of GLA, including new developments, extensions and redevelopments.