Mortgage market hits record highs amid strong development activity

03 August 2026

The second quarter of 2026 saw further growth in activity across Poland’s residential market, with strong mortgage demand providing a clear indication of market health. In June 2026, the value of mortgage enquiries increased by 15.8% year-on-year, the number of prospective borrowers reached 42,800, while the average requested loan amount rose to a record PLN 506,600, up 6.2% year-on-year. Both residential demand and supply remained strong, although the overall picture varied from city to city.

According to data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP), in the second quarter of 2026, the average offer price of a flat on the Warsaw primary market stood at PLN 18,488 per sqm, up 7% year-on-year. Price growth across Poland’s other major cities varied, with the strongest growth recorded in Gdańsk, at approximately 8% year-on-year, bringing the average offer price to PLN 17,116 per sqm, followed by Poznań, at 5%. Growth in the remaining markets was more subdued.

The buoyant residential market is supported by relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including solid economic growth prospects, with the NBP forecasting GDP growth of 3.7% in 2026, a decline in consumer price inflation to the NBP’s inflation target of 2.5% year-on-year in June, and a reduction in interest rates to 3.75%. Although the boost from interest-rate cuts is weaker than in the previous year, lending conditions remain significantly more favourable than during the period of peak borrowing costs. At the same time, Poland’s economy remains exposed to potential economic fluctuations and global uncertainty.

According to data from otodom, approximately 13,000 flats were sold across Poland’s seven largest new-build housing markets in the second quarter of 2026. Monthly sales reached approximately 4,500 units in both May and June, following a weaker start to the quarter. On the supply side, developer activity rebounded from the levels recorded at the beginning of 2026, with approximately 13,100 flats brought to market in the second quarter, around 50% more than in the first quarter. At the same time, available inventory stabilised at more than 60,000 flats at the end of June, following several months of gradual decline.

In June 2026, the value of residential mortgage enquiries rose by 15.8% year-on-year, while the number of prospective borrowers reached 42,800, an increase of 14.5% compared with the same period last year. A notable milestone was the average requested loan amount surpassing the PLN 500,000 mark, reaching a record PLN 506,600.

The surge in mortgage activity in the second quarter was driven by both a growing number of households deciding to purchase homes and continued growth in requested loan amounts. However, according to the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), mortgage demand is expected to ease gradually in the coming months due to the high statistical base effect,”

comments Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research Poland, Associate Director, Cushman & Wakefield.

Primary market: Healthy supply and stable prices

Buyer demand remains strong amid high development activity, as reflected in both housing starts and completions. In the first half of 2026, construction began on more than 69,600 flats, up 2% year-on-year and 3% above the average for the first halves of 2018–2025, a period that saw the highest level of development activity on record in Poland’s residential market.

During the same period, nearly 57,400 flats were completed. Although this represented only a 0.7% year-on-year increase compared with the first half of 2025, the figure was still 19% higher than in the corresponding period in 2018, the year preceding the supply peak recorded in 2019–2023. The high level of completions largely reflects the delivery of projects launched during the period of exceptionally robust development activity in earlier years.

Offer prices

Approximate average primary market prices in Poland’s major cities in Q2 2026, according to data from the NBP, were as follows:

· Warsaw: PLN 18,488 per sqm (+7% y/y)

· Gdańsk: PLN 17,116 per sqm (+8% y/y) – the city led the way for annual price growth, with the first flat sold for PLN 1 million in June 2026, according to otodom.

· Kraków: PLN 16,867 per sqm (+1% y/y)

· Wrocław: PLN 15,575 per sqm (0% y/y)

· Poznań: PLN 13,909 per sqm (+5% y/y) – the city saw record flat sales in June 2026, according to otodom.

· Łódź: PLN 11,837 per sqm (+1% y/y)

Prices continued to climb at a moderate pace despite growing pressure from rising construction costs. Developers need to factor new requirements related to the design of temporary emergency shelters, stricter acoustic standards and high land prices into their budgets.

The second quarter cemented the return of optimism across most residential markets. Strong demand and mortgage activity sent developers a clear signal that it was time to act. The growing number of construction starts and building permits confirms that the sector is willing and ready to launch new projects,”

says Karolina Furmańska, Residential & Living Sector Manager, Cushman & Wakefield

Secondary market: Buyer selectivity and offer-price stability

In the second quarter of 2026, property quality and fit-out standards began to play a key role in the secondary residential market. Buyers increasingly based their decisions on a property’s use value, prompting sellers to adopt a more rational approach to pricing.

Approximate average nominal prices in the secondary market were:

· Warsaw: PLN 19,059 per sqm.

· Kraków: PLN 16,838 per sqm.

· Gdańsk: PLN 16,384 per sqm.

In the second quarter of 2026, prices showed greater stability in the secondary market than in the primary market. Buyers remained active, albeit increasingly selective. As a result, the pace of sales was increasingly influenced by a property’s quality, location and realistic valuation. The strongest year-on-year growth in offer prices was recorded in Poznań and Gdańsk, at approximately 5%, while Warsaw posted growth of around 4%,”

says Vitalii Arkhypenko, Senior Research Analyst, Cushman & Wakefield.

About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for occupiers and investors with approximately 53,000 employees in over 350 offices and nearly 60 countries. In 2025, the firm reported revenue of $10.3 billion across its core service lines of Services, Leasing, Capital markets, and Valuation and other. Built around the belief that Better never settles, the firm receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com

Magdalena Znyk-Ossowska

Senior Consultant at Linkleaders

+48 502 556 846

Karolina Samczyńska

Head of Marketing and Sales Enablement, Poland at Cushman & Wakefield